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  #11  
Old 06-20-2008, 02:44 PM
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Its too bad we dont have a "say" in it anymore!!
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  #12  
Old 06-20-2008, 02:54 PM
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A few quotes from Wall Street Journal:

"For all the attention paid to China's increasing energy thirst, rising energy demand in the Middle East may pose the greater challenge. Last year, the regon's six largerst petroleum exporters -- Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar -- curbed their output by 544,000 barrels a day. At the same time, their domestic demand increased by 318,000 barrels a day, leading to a loss in nex exports of 862,000 barrels a day......"

"Since 2004, Saudi oil consumption has increased nearly 23%, to 2.3 million barrels a day last year." Predicted 2020 consumption could be 4.6 milliion barrels a day.

"No bigger exporter is struggling mor than Mexico, where net exports dropped 15% in 2007."

A few stats from Energy Information Agency Data:

Production by Energy Sources:
Coal 24%
Natural Gas 23%
Oil 38%
Nuclear 7%
Hydro 7%
Other 1%

Per capita consumption of energy by selected countries (shown in million BTU's)
USA 339
Russia 191
Japan 172
China 133
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  #13  
Old 06-20-2008, 03:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JimN View Post
" unless it's something we don't really need.
Doing my part to display this, I bought a bicycle last month. I Ride it work at least 2 times a week. If it rained less here in WA, I would ride more. Escalade is sitting in the carport gathering less miles, and I dont pay a gym to wonder when the cycles have an opening.

I buy local grown or raised food since the prices are actually competitive to others now. Now even my US $ is recyclable!!

Im not going to all together stop using my boat since it plays a part in Big Oils pocket lining, but I will offset the cost by doing more or less somewhere else. Its my responsibility as a US Citizen.

Jason
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  #14  
Old 06-20-2008, 03:39 PM
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"rising energy demand in the Middle East may pose the greater challenge. Last year, the regon's six largerst petroleum exporters -- Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar -- curbed their output by 544,000 barrels a day. At the same time, their domestic demand increased by 318,000 barrels a day, leading to a loss in nex exports of 862,000 barrels a day......""

It's still greed and the ability to stick someone with higher prices. They curbed their output, it didn't happen naturally. That means they wanted to get more per barrel. That doesn't say what the total exported was but the price/bbl has made up for it. They're not losing money, they just don't have to do as much to make it now.
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  #15  
Old 06-21-2008, 12:06 PM
Jorski Jorski is offline
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Important fact #1:
While demand in the U.S. is indeed falling, global (or total) demand is increasing

Important fact #2:
Supply is stuck at 85 million barrels/day (87 on an all liquids basis), despite the price tripling over the last 3 years.

Key thing to understand about "speculation":
While, everyone wants to point their finger at someone and "it's your fault" it is very unlikely that speculators can move a market of this size. Here's why:

a) The sheer size of the market. 87 million barrels/ day represents a $4.3 trillion per year market place. Simply too big for hedge funds to have much impact. If they could have they would have much more easily manipulated the price up when oil was $10/barrel.

b) How trading works in futures: For every long buyer of futures contract (a force which would push price up), there is a seller (which would push price down). Also, it would be just as likely that "speculators" would try to make money going short, trying to move the price down!

c) Reality: All of the hedge funds, financial speculators, and exchange traded funds, don't actually consume oil. So, they can buy a fwd contract, and tie up the option on that production for 30 days, or a couple of months etc, but in the end they don not take delivery, nor do they consume even one drop of oil due to their trading activities.

d) If all of the "speculators" of the entire planet focussed their efforts on one specific fwd contract in an effort manipulate it higher, the oil producers would swamp their efforts by selling all kinds of oil production. Further, other traders, would buy a cheaper contract, in another month, and sell to them at a profit until the articically high price was arbitraged away.

If you would like to learn more about oil, and what the realities of supply and demand are check out this site. It is an excellent resource:

http://www.theoildrum.com

Last edited by Jorski; 06-21-2008 at 07:19 PM.
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  #16  
Old 06-21-2008, 12:10 PM
Jorski Jorski is offline
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Quote:
It's still greed and the ability to stick someone with higher prices.
Jimn,

Funny thing, I thought that it was called Capitalism ! The right to charge what the market will bare...right ?? Now your post sounds like "The New Socialism"
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  #17  
Old 06-21-2008, 01:06 PM
TX.X-30 fan TX.X-30 fan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shepherd View Post
I blame George Bush.
Good one Shep.
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Myself I'll live on the edge and surf without a helmet.
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  #18  
Old 06-21-2008, 01:10 PM
TX.X-30 fan TX.X-30 fan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jorski View Post
Important fact #1:
While demand in the U.S. is indeed falling, global (or total) demand is increasing

Important fact #2:
Supply is stuck at 85 million barrels/day (87 on an all liquids basis), despite the price tripling over the last 3 years.

Key thing to understand about "speculation":
While, everyone wants to point their finger at someone and "it's your fault" it is very unlikely that speculators can move a market of this size. Here's why:

a) The sheer size of the market. 87 million barrels/ day represents a $4.3 trillion per year market place. Simply too big for hedge funds to have much impact. If they could have they would have much more easily manipulated the price up when oil was $10/barrel.

b) How trading works in futures: For every long buyer of futures contract (a force which would push price up), there is a seller (which would push price down). Also, it would be just as likely that "speculators" would try to make money going short, trying to move the price down!

c) Reality: All of the hedge funds, financial speculators, and exchange traded funds, don't actually consume oil. So, they can buy a fwd contract, and tie up the option on that production for 30 days, or a couple of months etc, but in the end they don not take delivery, nor do they consume even one drop of oil due to their trading activities.

d) If all of the "speculators of the entire planet focussed their efforts on one specific fwd contract in an effort manipulate it higher, the oil producers would swamp their efforts by selling all kinds of oil production. Further, other traders, would buy a cheaper contract, in another month, and sell to them at a profit until the articically high price was arbitraged away.

If you would like to learn more about oil, and what the realities of supply and demand are check out this site. It is an excellent resource:

http://www.theoildrum.com



Exactly, I knew MYMC was trying to blow smoke up my behind!!!
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Myself I'll live on the edge and surf without a helmet.
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  #19  
Old 06-21-2008, 01:17 PM
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JimN JimN is offline
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Sticking someone with an artificially high price is greed. Capitalism is making a profit by selling goods and services but not as a coop or state-owned. The market should determine the price, not speculators. Fear and greed are the two things that cause most of the changes in commodity prices.

Don't ever call me Socialist, new or otherwise.
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  #20  
Old 06-21-2008, 01:20 PM
TX.X-30 fan TX.X-30 fan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JimN View Post
Sticking someone with an artificially high price is greed. Capitalism is making a profit by selling goods and services but not as a coop or state-owned. The market should determine the price, not speculators. Fear and greed are the two things that cause most of the changes in commodity prices.

Don't ever call me Socialist, new or otherwise.




Smartest dude I don't know!!
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