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View Full Version : Fuel Prices...who To Blame


Jim@BAWS
04-25-2008, 11:05 PM
http://worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=62393


Come up with a MISTRUTH in this article

Jim@BAWS

magnum
04-26-2008, 01:42 AM
I agree with you totally, Everytime someone burps , they want to blame it on that. We can spend billions everywhere else in the world , I think it is time for congress to take care of their own people before they drive this country into the Ground , We just got our 1st MASTERCRAFT and We want to be able to USE it !!

JohnnyB
04-26-2008, 09:21 AM
http://worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=62393


Come up with a MISTRUTH in this article

Jim@BAWS

OK Jim, I'm still waking up...what did I miss??

TMCNo1
04-26-2008, 09:52 AM
Nevermind!

BriEOD
04-26-2008, 11:18 AM
Wow, Harold. I thought the article was pretty thought provoking and definitely has some relevance to the site. Gas just keeps going up and up. I read another article in which the author felt the bubble on the rising cost of crude oil was on the brink of popping. For all our sakes, I hope he is correct. Demand has gone up astronomically and the instability of oil rich areas such as Venezuela and Iraq, is only making costs at the pumps go up. I cannot even fathom how much fuel the military is using, as a whole, in the GWOT. Although, I did see an analogy recently in which an AF General was quoted as saying the AF tankers (in-flight refueling) had pumped the equivalent of the output of Niagra Falls for 10 minutes since the GWOT started. That is a lot of gas!!! Moreover, that is just in-flight refuleing.

Farmer Ted
04-26-2008, 11:21 AM
Wow, Harold. I thought the article was pretty thought provoking and definitely has some relevance to the site. Gas just keeps going up and up. I read another article in which the author felt the bubble on the rising cost of crude oil was on the brink of popping. For all our sakes, I hope he is correct. Demand has gone up astronomically and the instability of oil rich areas such as Venezuela and Iraq, is only making costs at the pumps go up. I cannot even fathom how much fuel the military is using, as a whole, in the GWOT. Although, I did see an analogy recently in which an AF General was quoted as saying the AF tankers (in-flight refueling) had pumped the equivalent of the output of Niagra Falls for 10 minutes since the GWOT started. That is a lot of gas!!! Moreover, that is just in-flight refuleing.

NKAWTG!

Nobody Kicks @ss Without Tanker Gas!


I think some of the rise in the price of oil can be attributed to the decline in the value of the dollar.

I'm sure someone smart here could pull a 10 year chart on the US dollar and plug in the price of oil to compare

dollar goes up, oil goes down
dollar goes down, oil goes up

This is the best I could find......

Jorski
04-28-2008, 01:03 PM
Farmer is absolutley correct that about 45% of the increase in gas prices in the U.S. is attributable the weakness of the U.S. dollar. This is implicit in that oil is priced in USD so if the denominator in a fraction decreases, the notional value of the numerator increases.

As a proxy, you can look at the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. (You could also use a basket of foreign currencies. it would look about the same but wouldn't p*ss of TX-X30 as much-gggg):

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/5y?usdcad=x

Further, the world oil production has been stuck at about 85 million barrels/day for the last 2-3 years, while demand has increased beyond that level and will continue to climb. The gap has been filled by depleting above ground inventories, and in some cases by condensates from natural gas.

Though it seems tempting to point to Alaska etc, it pales in comparison to decline rates we are facing from old mature reserves; US domestic production rates peaked several years ago...it gets even worse when you look abroad; bye bye North Sea. Recently, it appears that russian oil production has also peaked. Peak oil is not so much about whether or not we have 50, 75 or 100 years of oil in the ground, but rather it is about the rate at which we consume oil, versus the rate at which we can get it out of the ground. The Energy Information Agency (the government department responsible for this kind of stuff...so this is what Bush is telling you, not someone with a communist agenda) has suggested that even if Alaska was running at peak production in 2025, the effect would be to reduce US reliance on foreign oil from 70% to 66% - hardly any difference at all. Never mind any environmental impact nor the difficulties in building a pipeline that long or pumping oil through that pipeline at freezing temperatures.

Recently, there was a mother of a discovery announced off of the coast of Brazil. The biggest single discovery in decades. The rub is that equates to about a 1 year supply of oil at current demand levels.

The most difficult culprit, in terms of finding more is the declining energy return on exploration. In the 1930's it took the equivalent amount of energy of one barrel of oil to find the equivalent of 30 barrels of oil. That has fallen consistently over the years and now, is more like a 2 to 1 payback. FWIW, the Canadian oil sands are 1.1 to 1 return on energy.

In the end, oil and gas are going to go significantly higher, and there is absolutely nothing policy makers can do about it.

edeckerpc
04-28-2008, 01:40 PM
Interesting article regarding existing oil fields, new oil discoveries, and the lack of resource $$$ and refineries. Definitely don't like the reference to $180 a barrel.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/WhyOilCouldHit180DollarsABarrel.aspx

bigmac
04-28-2008, 01:45 PM
Farmer is absolutley correct that about 45% of the increase in gas prices in the U.S. is attributable the weakness of the U.S. dollar. This is implicit in that oil is priced in USD so if the denominator in a fraction decreases the notional value of the numerator increases.

As a proxy, you can look at the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. (You could also use a basket of foreign currencies. it would look about the same but wouldn't p*ss of TX-X30 as much-gggg):

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/5y?usdcad=x

Further, the world oil production has been stuck at about 85 million barrels/day for the last 2-3 years, while demand has increased beyond that level and will continue to climb. The gap has been filled by depleting above ground inventories, and in some cases by condensates from natural gas.

Though it seems tempting to point to Alaska etc, it pales in comparison to decline rates we are facing from old mature reserves; US domestic production rates peaked several years ago...it gets even worse when you look abroad; bye bye North Sea. Recently, it appears that russian oil production has also peaked. Peak oil is not so much about whether or not we have 50, 75 or 100 years of oil in the ground, but rather it is about the rate at which we consume oil, versus the rate at which we can get it out of the ground. The Energy Information Agency (the government department responsible for this kind of stuff...so this is what Bush is telling you, not someone with a communist agenda) has suggested that even if Alaska was running at peak production in 2025, the effect would be to reduce US reliance on foreign oil from 70% to 66% - hardly any difference at all. Never mind any environmental impact nor the difficulties in building a pipeline that long or pumping oil through that pipeline at freezing temperatures.

Recently, there was a mother of a discovery announced off of the coast of Brazil. The biggest single discovery in decades. The rub is that equates to about a 1 year supply of oil at current demand levels.

The most difficult culprit, in terms of finding more is the declining energy return on exploration. In the 1930's it took the equivalent amount of energy of one barrel of oil to find the equivalent of 30 barrels of oil. That has fallen consistently over the years and now, is more like a 2 to 1 payback. FWIW, the Canadian oil sands are 1.1 to 1 return on energy.

In the end, oil and gas are going to go significantly higher, and there is absolutely nothing policy makers can do about it.


Nice review.

Other factors in increased gasoline prices at the pump are supply and demand issues relative to the US inability to build sufficient refining capacity, as well as taxes necessary to maintain and/or rebuild an aging (and in some cases crumbling (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I-35W_Mississippi_River_bridge)) highway infrastructure. Again, nothing can be done about it (without paying more in taxes, more for fuel), but our bitter complaints are illustrative of our general attitude that somehow we as Americans are entitled to a free lunch. Our economy is a house of cards, and China and India have just knocked a couple of cards out from the bottom while Saudi Arabia is blowing on it like crazy.

RexDog1
04-28-2008, 01:50 PM
I feel obligated forwarding this just in case it might work.

THIS IS NOT THE 'DON'T BUY' GAS FOR ONE DAY, BUT IT WILL SHOW YOU HOW
WE
CAN GET GAS BACK DOWN TO $1.30 PER GALLON.

This was sent by a retired Coca Cola executive. If you are tired of the
gas prices going up AND they will continue to rise this summer, take time
to read this please.

Phillip Hollsworth offered this good idea.
This makes MUCH MORE SENSE than the "don't buy gas on a certain day"
campaign that was going around last April or May!
It's worth your consideration. Join the resistance!!!!

I hear we are going to hit close to $ 4.00 a gallon by next summer and it
might go higher!! Want gasoline prices to come down?

We need to take some intelligent, united action.

The oil companies just laughed at that because they knew we wouldn't
continue to "hurt" ourselves by refusing to buy gas .

It was more of an inconvenience to us than it was a problem for them.
BUT, whoever thought of this idea, has come up with a plan that can Really
work. Please read on and join with us!

By now you're probably thinking gasoline priced at about $2.00 is super
cheap. Me too! It is currently $3.49 for regular unleaded in my town,
Seattle.

Now that the oil com
panies and the OPEC nations have conditioned us to think that the cost of
a gallon of gas is CHEAP at $1.50 - $1.75, we need to take aggressive
action to teach them that BUYERS control the marketplace..not sellers.

With the price of gasoline going up more each day, we consumers need to
take action.

The only way we are going to see the price of gas come down is if we hit

someone in the pocketbook by not purchasing their gas! And, we can do
that WITHOUT hurting ourselves.

How? Since we all rely on our cars, we can't just stop buying gas. &nb
sp;
But we CAN have an impact on gas prices if we all act together to force a
price war.

Here's the idea: For the rest of this year, DON'T purchase ANY gasoline
from the two biggest companies (which now are one), EXXON and MOBIL.

If they are not selling any gas, they will be inclined to reduce their
prices. If

they reduce their prices, the other companies will have to follow suit.

But to have an impact, we need to reach literally millions of Ex xon and
Mobil gas buyers. It's really simple to do! Now, don't wimp out on me
at
this point...keep reading and I'll explain how simple it is to reach
millions of people!!

I am sending this note to 30 people. If each of us send it to at least
ten more (30 x 10 = 300) ... and those 300 send it to at least ten more
(300 x 10 = 3,000)... and so on, by the time the message reaches the sixth
group of people, we will have reached over THREE MILLION consumers .
If those three million get excited and pass this on to ten friends each,
then 30 million people will have been contacted!

If it goes one level further, you guessed it..... ;THREE HUNDRED MILLION

PEOPLE!!!

Again, all you have to do is send this to 10 people. That's all!

(If you don't understand how we can reach 300 million and all you have to
do is send this to 10 people.... Well, let's face it, you just aren't a
mathematician. But I am . so trust me on this one.

How long would all that take? If each of us sends this e-mail out to ten
more people within one day of receipt, all 300 MILLION people could
conceivably be contacted within the next 8 days!!!

I'll bet you didn't think you and I had that much potential, did you!
Acting together we can make a difference.

Jorski
04-28-2008, 02:07 PM
OH BOY....

Got the exact same email from Schnitz about 2 years ago, he even had it on his website. Tried to explain it to him, he wouldn't listen to economic reason...guess what happened to gas prices since then?

If you don't buy gas from a particular company...you will by definition be buying it from someone else. Therefore, the outcome WILL NOT BE LOWER PRICES, it will be an imbalance between company A and company B. Now, neither company is stupid, so the one with too much gas, will sell it to the company with too much demand. Or more correctly will sell it in the spot market, where the other one will buy it.

Since there is no change in global consumption, nor in global demand there will be NO REDUCTION IN THE PRICE OF GASOLINE. There will actually be a slight increase due to the need for paying extra commissions to trade in the spot market in order to achieve this balance.

BTW, this "idea" and its' variants have been around for years, all the while oil has gone from $10/ barrell to $120/barrell.

You can find out all about this "great" idea on snopes.com.

http://www.snopes.com/politics/gasoline/gasout.asp

Look familiar ??

If you want to reduce the price of oil, there are only two solutions. One, everyone would have to consume considerably less, this lowers demand and will reduce prices (though it would have to be enough to offset 9% growth in oil demand this year in China and India). Two, find more supply. They have been trying, no luck on this front for three years.

bigmac
04-28-2008, 02:31 PM
Again, all you have to do is send this to 10 people. That's all!




My spam filter is literally overflowing with email that contain this phrase.

Ric
04-28-2008, 02:36 PM
who's idea was it for us to burn our food in our cars?

Jorski
04-28-2008, 02:40 PM
who's idea was it for us to burn our food in our cars?

Now that's the definition of ironic !

jraben8
04-28-2008, 02:47 PM
Yea, we see where that is getting us...

Jim@BAWS
04-29-2008, 07:59 PM
I feel obligated forwarding this just in case it might work.

THIS IS NOT THE 'DON'T BUY' GAS FOR ONE DAY, BUT IT WILL SHOW YOU HOW
WE
CAN GET GAS BACK DOWN TO $1.30 PER GALLON.


I'll bet you didn't think you and I had that much potential, did you!
Acting together we can make a difference.

REX I deleted the INARDS of this email because it is SO LARGE anyway. You have recieved the SAME email as many people have gotten. It is a GREAT idea. But who is following it? I buy my diesel at Hess and gas at Racetrack. But who keeps buying at MOBIL/ Exxon? Does anyone really read the emails and respond to them? I think that it would really work. You and I have never shared emails...but yet you along with countless others have recieved that same email.proving that the Email pyramid really does work. But who has followed the guidelines of that email?

I have...for along time. I have stayed clear of Exxon/ Mobil

Jim@BAWS

Jorski
04-30-2008, 12:48 AM
You have recieved the SAME email as many people have gotten. It is a GREAT idea.

Jim, it is not a "great idea", it is a patently stupid idea. You don't want to deal with Exon, then don't. Want the whole world to stop dealing with them? That's fine too; just don't think for one minute that it will lower the price of gas though.

It simply can't, and to argue otherwise is to contravene all logic and the most basic laws of economics (namely that price is a function of demand and supply). Unless we all consume less total gas, the price will continue to rise. No matter who you buy it from.

Do you honestly think the world's energy crisis can be solved by an internet chain mail ? Do you buy personal enlargement devices, viagra and rolexes from email solicitations ? It's the same thing man!

djhuff
04-30-2008, 08:57 AM
Jorski is spot on, gas and oil are commodities, Exxon, Mobil, Hess, BP, are all just traders (and producers) but they constantly trade reserves back and forth. A while ago, I saw a similar e-mail trying to hit Chavez by not buying gas from Citgo. Great, doesn't matter, the only person that you are really hurting is the individual station owner. You go to a "Racetrack" station, and it is just as likely that the oil came from Brazil, the middle east, or less, our own supplies.

Slinkyredfoot
04-30-2008, 09:35 AM
Earnings Report in the USA today show "BP and Shell profits blow away forecasts"

BP posted 63% surge in first quarter net profit to $7.6 BILLION, Shell a 25% rise to $9.8 BILLION...sickening to think we are all paying and nothing is being done...........:mad:

TX.X-30 fan
04-30-2008, 09:49 AM
All the refined product comes from the same place/ places the refineries to a terminal where a truck can be loaded. Exxon truck fills, Chevron truck fills, Citgo trucks fill, same gas all over. So you can see it will have no effect.


Thanks Jorski for tramping lightly on my delicate sensibilities. :D

Upper Michigan Prostar190
04-30-2008, 10:49 AM
You fellas interested in a unique bizness opportunity? see we all have needs for things like toothpaste, and deodorant. and If I can buy some at a reduced rate, and sell it to you, we save money. but if you can sell some toothpaste to your friends, and they sell some toothpaste to their friends, then we can make some money. see?

Jim@BAWS
04-30-2008, 11:08 AM
Jim, it is not a "great idea", it is a patently stupid idea. You don't want to deal with Exon, then don't. Want the whole world to stop dealing with them? That's fine too; just don't think for one minute that it will lower the price of gas though.

It simply can't, and to argue otherwise is to contravene all logic and the most basic laws of economics (namely that price is a function of demand and supply). Unless we all consume less total gas, the price will continue to rise. No matter who you buy it from.

Do you honestly think the world's energy crisis can be solved by an internet chain mail ? Do you buy personal enlargement devices, viagra and rolexes from email solicitations ? It's the same thing man!


I guess I should apply for a PATENT on this one !!! Maybe I can make a few bucks on it.

WOW...sorry to have offended you! You mean to tell me that if we don't buy for a couple of days from Exxon Mobil they won't lower there prices? This was meant to be an OPEN conversation about fuel prices.

"namely that price is a function of demand and supply" You pretty much said it yourself...if the demand goes down so does the price !!!

I don't purchase viagra online...I don't need it. Maybe you had a bad buying experience.

Jim@BAWS

Jorski
04-30-2008, 01:05 PM
WOW...sorry to have offended you! You mean to tell me that if we don't buy for a couple of days from Exxon Mobil they won't lower there prices? This was meant to be an OPEN conversation about fuel prices.

"namely that price is a function of demand and supply" You pretty much said it yourself...if the demand goes down so does the price !!!



Jim,

Let's say there are only two gas retailers in the United States. Company Good, and Company Bad. If everyone stops buying gas from "Bad", and starts buying their gas from "Good". There is NO drop in total demand, it is a shift in demand from "Bad" to "Good".

Now, you say, "Bad" must drop its' prices..and perhaps they would try a penny or two per gallon. Probably would; but they would do it by about as much as "Good" has had to increase its' prices as they do not have enough gas to meet the increased demand at their pumps.

If there was no response, to the small move in prices, where do we sit? Well "Good" doesn't have enough gas, and "Bad" has too much gas. Guess how that will be solved: "Bad" will sell to "Good". Now they won't need to do it directly, in the spot market, "Bad" will offer gas, and "Good" will buy the gas.

If you managed to make your little boycott last long enough, company "Bad" will close stations, and there will be less competition. Overall margins will increase and you will be paying more than ever for gas.

Now, did you hurt exxon (Bad) ? No, you killed some operators and exxon is happily selling wholesale gas to "Good".

Upper Michigan Prostar190
04-30-2008, 01:26 PM
See I told you guys. just like the toothpaste. we all need it.

TX.X-30 fan
04-30-2008, 01:33 PM
Want cheaper gas?? Its not going to happen overnight, we need new refineries many of them. Will congress do this I mean fast track approvals for them NO! We need exploration and lots of it, will congress see this need and how our economy is being effected by higher fuel prices NO! Will Florida and California allow drilling to begin offshore again NO! Can we please go drill in that stinking frozen tundra ANWAR, as proposed on less than 1% of the refuge NO. We only get approx. 26% of our oil from the middle east and could easily make this amount up with domestic production.

And by the way all these were proposed within a few months of GW taking office in his first term. We are getting just what we deserve for allowing our congress to let special interests opposed to oil production and refining run this nation.

bcampbe7
04-30-2008, 01:39 PM
See I told you guys. just like the toothpaste. we all need it.


Hey, did you get new tires on your Prius yet?

Upper Michigan Prostar190
04-30-2008, 01:41 PM
Hey, did you get new tires on your Prius yet?
Not yet, I am too busy working on a group buy on Prius batteries. not here though, on a different forum. cuz we dont do that stuff here.

bcampbe7
04-30-2008, 01:43 PM
Not yet, I am too busy working on a group buy on Prius batteries. not here though, on a different forum. cuz we dont do that stuff here.


I am thinking about ditching the Prius for a horse and cart. An Amish family up the road has one up on blocks in their front yard. I bet I can get a deal! :cool:

TX.X-30 fan
04-30-2008, 01:45 PM
I am thinking about ditching the Prius for a horse and cart. An Amish family up the road has one up on blocks in their front yard. I bet I can get a deal! :cool:




They have a horse up on blocks??? 8p

Upper Michigan Prostar190
04-30-2008, 01:46 PM
Oh I dont know if you should.......those amish are shady people.

brucemac
04-30-2008, 01:46 PM
Want cheaper gas?? Its not going to happen overnight, we need new refineries many of them. Will congress do this I mean fast track approvals for them NO! We need exploration and lots of it, will congress see this need and how our economy is being effected by higher fuel prices NO! Will Florida and California allow drilling to begin offshore again NO! Can we please go drill in that stinking frozen tundra ANWAR, as proposed on less than 1% of the refuge NO. We only get approx. 26% of our oil from the middle east and could easily make this amount up with domestic production.

And by the way all these were proposed within a few months of GW taking office in his first term. We are getting just what we deserve for allowing our congress to let special interests opposed to oil production and refining run this nation.

you watch any news last night? they were pretty much saying the same thing, however anything started now they claim is too little too late and that it would take YEARS to see any affect. and that's in a perfect world where it would breeze through congress and the environmentalists. i don't usually ***** and moan about gas. i kind of made a mental note to myself not to complain when i bought my yukon (~13 MPG) that i wouldn't complain. now finally an MC and have to remind myself of that. it's unfortunate, but it is what it is. some people hold hope that it's a bubble similar to the real estate market. lol, i wish, but it's one bubble that isn't ever going to burst imo.

brucemac
04-30-2008, 01:47 PM
sorry

dp

Upper Michigan Prostar190
04-30-2008, 01:50 PM
I have no idea what is going on in the world. I only watch ALF reruns.

TX.X-30 fan
04-30-2008, 01:52 PM
It will take time so we need to act quickly and like you I see no desire to become energy independant, just mucho hot air from Washinton.

Upper Michigan Prostar190
04-30-2008, 01:56 PM
It will take time so we need to act quickly and like you I see no desire to become energy independant, just mucho hot air from Washinton.
damn your sexy when you talk dirty in spanish.