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View Full Version : Cali's Gonna Rock


coz
04-15-2008, 09:28 AM
Not sure when? but it's gonna!


By ALICIA CHANG, AP Science Writer
Mon Apr 14, 6:20 PM ET



LOS ANGELES - California faces an almost certain risk of being rocked by a strong earthquake by 2037, scientists said Monday in the first statewide temblor forecast.

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New calculations reveal there is a 99.7 percent chance a magnitude 6.7 quake or larger will strike in the next 30 years. The odds of such an event are higher in Southern California than Northern California, 97 percent versus 93 percent.

"It basically guarantees it's going to happen," said Ned Field, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey in Pasadena and lead author of the report.

The 1994 Northridge earthquake under Los Angeles' San Fernando Valley was magnitude 6.7. It killed 72 people, injured more than 9,000 and caused $25 billion in damage in the metropolitan area.

The damage created by an earthquake depends greatly on where it hits. A 7.1 quake — much stronger than Northridge — hit the Mojave Desert in 1999 but caused only a few injuries and no deaths.

California is one of the world's most seismically active regions. More than 300 faults crisscross the state, which sits atop two of Earth's major tectonic plates, the Pacific and North American plates. About 10,000 quakes each year rattle Southern California alone, although most of them are too small to be felt.

The analysis is the first comprehensive effort by the USGS, Southern California Earthquake Center and California Geological Survey to calculate earthquake probabilities for the entire state using newly available data. Previous quake probabilities focused on specific regions and used various methodologies that made it difficult to compare.

For example, a 2003 report found the San Francisco Bay Area faced a 62 percent chance of being struck by a magnitude 6.7 quake by 2032. The new study increased the likelihood slightly to 63 percent by 2037. For the Los Angeles Basin, the probability is higher at 67 percent. There is no past comparison for the Los Angeles area.

Scientists still cannot predict exactly where in the state such a quake will occur or when. But they say the analysis should be a wake-up call for residents to prepare for a natural disaster in earthquake country.

Knowing the likelihood of a strong earthquake is the first step in allowing scientists to draw up hazard maps that show the potential severity of ground shaking in an area. The information can also help with updating building codes and emergency plans and setting earthquake insurance rates.

"A big earthquake can happen tomorrow or it can happen 10 years from now," said Tom Jordan, director of the earthquake center, which is headquartered at the University of Southern California.

Researchers also calculated the statewide probabilities for larger temblors over the same time period. Among their findings: There is a 94 percent chance of a magnitude 7 shock or larger; a 46 percent chance of a magnitude 7.5 and a 4.5 percent chance of a magnitude 8.

The odds are higher that a magnitude 7.5 quake will hit Southern California than Northern California — 37 percent versus 15 percent.

Of all the faults in the state, the southern San Andreas, which runs from Parkfield in central California southeast to the Salton Sea, appears most primed to break, scientists found. There is a 59 percent chance in the next three decades that a Northridge-size quake will occur on the fault compared to 21 percent for the northern section.

The northern San Andreas produced the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, but the southernmost segment has not popped in more than three centuries.

Scientists are also concerned about the Hayward and San Jacinto faults, which have a 31 percent chance of producing a Northridge-size temblor in the next 30 years. The Hayward fault runs through densely populated cities in the San Francisco Bay Area. The San Jacinto fault bisects the fast-growing city of San Bernardino east of Los Angeles.

We were always told the big ones coming looks like I got out just in time :D

Sodar
04-15-2008, 10:44 AM
Wow! What a genius hypothesis! That is like saying a hurricane is going to hit Florida, a tornado is going to hit Kansas and a blizzard is going to hit Minnesota between now and 2037! DUH!!!

Glad to see these guys have a job! :)

flipper
04-15-2008, 10:45 AM
I saw the same thing, funny part is, we have a good one about every ten years. Anybody could have came up with the prediction!!! It's like saying "I think it's going to rain this winter"....it's a given.

sizzler
04-15-2008, 10:46 AM
well......santa monica and LA rocked for me last week.....:D

TMCNo1
04-15-2008, 10:49 AM
Wow! What a genius hypothesis! That is like saying a hurricane is going to hit Florida, a tornado is going to hit Kansas and a blizzard is going to hit Minnesota between now and 2037! DUH!!!

Glad to see these guys have a job! :)

If I were you guys out in Califoirnia, I'd be tying ropes and throwing out anchors right now to Oregon, Nevada, Arizona and Mexico, before you fall off into the Pacific. Don't forget to put out fenders!:rolleyes: :D

wakeX2wake
04-15-2008, 10:52 AM
Wow! What a genius hypothesis! That is like saying a hurricane is going to hit Florida, a tornado is going to hit Kansas and a blizzard is going to hit Minnesota between now and 2037! DUH!!!

Glad to see these guys have a job! :)

or like saying that i'm going ot be getting drunk this weekend... NO CHIT

Sodar
04-15-2008, 10:59 AM
If I were you guys out in Califoirnia, I'd be tying ropes and throwing out anchors right now to Oregon, Nevada, Arizona and Mexico, before you fall off into the Pacific. Don't forget to put out fenders!:rolleyes: :D

Why? I have always wanted to live on an island!?!?! :D

TMCNo1
04-15-2008, 11:04 AM
Why? I have always wanted to live on an island!?!?! :D

:uglyhamme Got me!

Ramhouse
04-15-2008, 12:09 PM
Yeh, California news has got to be the best. Saw last nights report, and just saw the topic here, both I and my wife lol. Olny because there ws nothing else to talk about in the news. Britney didn't go clubing, no body got shot in L.A., no bombing in Iraq(thank GOD), stockmarket stayed the same,...so on and so on.....NEED I SAY MORE ABOUT THE NEWS!!!:confused::rolleyes:
:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

peason
04-15-2008, 12:11 PM
well......santa monica and LA rocked for me last week.....:D

We want details and PICS!

wakeX2wake
04-15-2008, 12:11 PM
Yeh, California news has got to be the best. Saw last nights report, and just saw the topic here, both I and my wife lol. Olny because there ws nothing else to talk about in the news. Britney didn't go clubing, no body got shot in L.A., no bombing in Iraq(thank GOD), stockmarket stayed the same,...so on and so on.....NEED I SAY MORE ABOUT THE NEWS!!!:confused::rolleyes:
:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

true... that report has probably been on the cutting room floor for a week or so now

Upper Michigan Prostar190
04-15-2008, 12:18 PM
Wow! What a genius hypothesis! That is like saying a hurricane is going to hit Florida, a tornado is going to hit Kansas and a blizzard is going to hit Minnesota between now and 2037! DUH!!!

Glad to see these guys have a job!


OH MY GUTS HURT FROM THAT ONE SODAR!!!! :uglyhamme :uglyhamme :uglyhamme

coz
04-15-2008, 12:19 PM
Wow! What a genius hypothesis! That is like saying a hurricane is going to hit Florida, a tornado is going to hit Kansas and a blizzard is going to hit Minnesota between now and 2037! DUH!!!

Glad to see these guys have a job! :)

If you remember the drop drills from the 60's & 70's cali schools we were waiting for the big one back then. :confused: along with the BOMB!

M-Funf
04-15-2008, 12:51 PM
6.7????

When I fart the couch shakes more than that...

Why? I have always wanted to live on an island!?!?! :D

Yeah, me too. Waterfront property, baby!!! :banana:

'02xrider
04-15-2008, 12:52 PM
Please, please, please spread the word on this one! Email the article to everyone in your address book and ask them to do the same. I am very concerned for the safety of those that are contemplating moving to California. Again, please spread the word

coz
04-15-2008, 12:57 PM
Please, please, please spread the word on this one! Email the article to everyone in your address book and ask them to do the same. I am very concerned for the safety of those that are contemplating moving to California. Again, please spread the word

http://www.wikinomics.com/blog/uploads/disney-chicken-little-sky-falling.jpg

He tried to warn everybody but noone listned :confused:

'02xrider
04-16-2008, 11:26 AM
I just figure the more people that are convinced that it is going to fall into the ocean, the more oceanfront property that will be available for the rest of us!!! And also more space on our lakes!!!

RexDog1
04-16-2008, 11:54 AM
IMHO
LET IT HIT we need to rebuild this place,:mad: and build some more parks!!!!!! And plant some trees
“I LOVE TREES” http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/11/11_1_200.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZSYYYYYYMNUS) :rolleyes:.......... :rolleyes:

coz
04-16-2008, 11:58 AM
IMHO
LET IT HIT we need to rebuild this place,:mad: and build some more parks!!!!!! And plant some trees
“I LOVE TREES” http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/11/11_1_200.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZSYYYYYYMNUS)


Are you a member of this message board RD? :D

http://www.treehuggersofamerica.org/images/tree_hugger.jpg

RexDog1
04-16-2008, 11:59 AM
Are you a member of this message board RD? :D

http://www.treehuggersofamerica.org/images/tree_hugger.jpg


LOL .....NO:rolleyes: but can i hug her?

Sodar
04-16-2008, 12:12 PM
IMHO
LET IT HIT we need to rebuild this place and build some more parks!!!!!! And plant some trees
“I LOVE TREES” http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/11/11_1_200.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZSYYYYYYMNUS) .......... :rolleyes:

The "GREAT" park is coming!!! :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

http://www.ocgp.org/

RexDog1
04-16-2008, 12:16 PM
The "GREAT" park is coming!!! :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

http://www.ocgp.org/

I LOVE parks, trees, puppy’s, and rainbows!!!!!!!!!
HAVE A NICE DAY ALL http://smileys.smileycentral.com/cat/36/36_1_1.gif (http://www.smileycentral.com/?partner=ZSzeb001_ZSYYYYYYMNUS)

D3skier
04-16-2008, 01:12 PM
6.7????

When I fart the couch shakes more than that...



Yeah, me too. Waterfront property, baby!!! :banana:



TMI..............:uglyhamme :uglyhamme

coz
04-16-2008, 02:06 PM
The "GREAT" park is coming!!! :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

http://www.ocgp.org/


In Tustin? I thought that was there by now :rolleyes:

Sodar
04-16-2008, 02:14 PM
In Tustin? I thought that was there by now :rolleyes:

The Ballon is there and they are starting construction, but it will take some time. My guess is that the housing element of the sell-off will not be coming for a long while, with the market the way it is. I guess they also had some setbacks with the jet fuel contaminating the soil. It is going to be really cool when it is all said and done! I went up in the ballon a couple months back on my way home from the Oakley Factory and it was really cool!

RexDog1
04-16-2008, 02:27 PM
The Ballon is there and they are starting construction, but it will take some time. My guess is that the housing element of the sell-off will not be coming for a long while, with the market the way it is. I guess they also had some setbacks with the jet fuel contaminating the soil. It is going to be really cool when it is all said and done! I went up in the ballon a couple months back on my way home from the Oakley Factory and it was really cool!

The owner Of Oakley is a crazy mad man, IMHO,:rolleyes: cool place!!!!! Did you go way downstairs?:rolleyes: :D

Sodar
04-16-2008, 02:30 PM
The owner Of Oakley is a crazy mad man, IMHO,:rolleyes: cool place!!!!! Did you go way downstairs?:rolleyes: :D

Been everywhere. My uncle did the elctrical work on the building. I got to go to the grand opening!

He is the owner no longer though! He is now, just a VERY rich man! Ray-Ban's parent company, Luxottica Group, bought them in a cash deal worth 2.1 BILLION!!!

Lucky, Lucky Man!

RexDog1
04-16-2008, 02:33 PM
Lucky, Lucky Man!


Crazy Crazy MAN..........................:eek3:

Sodar
04-16-2008, 02:36 PM
Crazy Crazy MAN..........................:eek3:

You are talking about Jannard, right?

Fellow USC grad! :D

RexDog1
04-16-2008, 02:45 PM
Yes he has more guns and amo, than the US army :rolleyes:

Sodar
04-16-2008, 02:46 PM
Yes he has more guns and amo, than the US army :rolleyes:

And more camera equipment than the CIA! :cool: