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Prostar Rich
02-12-2008, 04:56 PM
Saw this article on MSN.

Prostar Rich


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What are the chances that Lake Mead, a key source of water for more than 22 million people in the Southwest, would ever go dry? A new study says it's 50 percent by 2021 if warming continues and water use is not curtailed.

"We were stunned at the magnitude of the problem and how fast it was coming at us," co-author Tim Barnett of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography said in a statement. "Make no mistake, this water problem is not a scientific abstraction, but rather one that will impact each and every one of us that live in the Southwest."

"It's likely to mean real changes to how we live and do business in this region," added co-author David Pierce, a Scripps climate scientist.

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The experts estimated that the Colorado River system which feeds Lake Mead and Lake Powell, is seeing a net deficit of nearly 1 million acre-feet of water per year an amount that can supply some 8 million people. That water is not being replenished, they noted, and human demand, evaporation and human-induced climate change are fueling the growing deficit.

The system is already at half capacity because of a eight years of drought.

"When expected changes due to global warming are included as well, currently scheduled depletions are simply not sustainable," Barnett and Pierce write in the study.


Laura Rauch / AP file
The reduction in water levels due to drought on Lake Mead can be seen by the white ring around the shore at Hoover Dam in this photo from July 21, 2006.
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The two analyzed federal records of past water demand as well as calculations of scheduled water allocations and climate conditions.

Lake Mead straddles the Arizona-Nevada border. Aqueducts carry water from the system to Las Vegas, Los Angeles, San Diego, and other communities.

The researchers also noted that their estimates are conservative in other words, the water shortage is likely to be even more dire than they estimate. The conservative approach included basing their findings on:

The premise that warming effects only started in 2007, though most experts consider human-caused warming to have likely started decades earlier.
Averaging river flow over the past 100 years, even though it has dropped in recent decades.
The study has been accepted for publication, possibly next month, in the peer-reviewed Water Resources Research, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

Barnett and Pierce also estimated:

A 10 percent chance that Lake Mead could be dry by 2014.
A 50 percent chance that reservoir levels will drop too low to allow hydroelectric power generation by 2017.
The system could still run dry even if recently proposed mitigation measures are implemented, the researchers said.

"Today, we are at or beyond the sustainable limit of the Colorado system," the study concludes. "The alternative to reasoned solutions to this coming water crisis is a major societal and economic disruption in the desert southwest; something that will affect each of us living in the region."

sand2snow22
02-12-2008, 07:07 PM
Aint going dry this year!

SunCoast 83
02-12-2008, 08:08 PM
Just read that online myself.

JimN
02-12-2008, 08:32 PM
Well, if Global Warming causes more water evaporation, won't that mean more rain and snow?

jimmer2880
02-12-2008, 08:37 PM
Well, if Global Warming causes more water evaporation, won't that mean more rain and snow?

Now jim, you are using the wrong math again. You need to switch to the math where if an iceberg melts, the water will rise. Did you ever notice how when the ice in your martini melts, you don't magically have more martini?

JimN
02-12-2008, 09:12 PM
"Did you ever notice how when the ice in your martini melts, you don't magically have more martini?"

I thought that was just good service.

But if there's more water and it's warmer, the change in water level will be tempered by the evaporation. More rain and snow means the lakes and rivers will be full, people will have more than enough water, recreational areas will be in good shape, people will buy water sports equipment and that will stimulate the economy, which means there will be a need for more employees. If the extra rain is relatively evenly distributed around the world, places that have been in serious drought will have rain, they'll be able to grow what they need or crops they can trade for what they need and that could mean world hunger will be decreased. When people have what they need, they can live more peacefully.

Where's the downside?

coz
02-12-2008, 10:05 PM
Did you ever notice how when the ice in your martini melts, you don't magically have more martini?

Thank god we have someone on this board that can give us the scientific explination for this global warming thing. :D

phecksel
02-13-2008, 01:14 AM
They're pulling water out of the river and sending it hundreds of miles away to an over populated area and blaming it on global warming?

BTW, send us some of that global warming, our weather has been COLD!

JimN
02-13-2008, 10:00 AM
I was kidding. We passed 74" of snow this winter and I'm gettin' sick up and fed with it.

chudson
02-13-2008, 10:45 AM
"Did you ever notice how when the ice in your martini melts, you don't magically have more martini?"

That's funny the same thing happens with beer in the cooler!!! :D

lanier92prostar
02-13-2008, 10:51 AM
How about Powell? How far is is down now. I heard it was close to 100 feet at one time?

Sodar
02-13-2008, 11:19 AM
You guys wanna know what else fries me!?!?!?

This stuff! In the DESERT!!

Fountains
http://blog.busbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/02/bellagio_hotel_and_casino_las_vegas_nv.jpg

Golf Courses
31507

YADDA YADDA YADDA!
Seems like a little "native landscaping" in Vegas needs to take over and water usage would be down about 40%!!

Vegas has grow TREMENDOUSLY over the last 2 decades with homes. I am not saying that all of the southwestern states need to watch themselves, but vegas' "bigger is better" philosophy is just not cutting it!

coz
02-13-2008, 11:42 AM
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/168/363001385_7f7cc1484c.jpg
http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1177/1252157372_734a04173c.jpg
http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1070/525464526_37ceb07bb6.jpg
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/27/89865218_7df7141240.jpg

Dbuck
02-13-2008, 11:54 AM
I agreed with the martini theory myself until I watched a National Geographic show(probably first mistake)about it the other day.

Its not that the ice in the martini melts that raises the level, its that more ice falls in or melts into it. A lot of the ice at the south pole for instance is not already in the ocean, it is sitting on top of Antartica. So if you have the ice bucket sitting next to your martini and plop some more cubes in or let it melt and pour it in, your glass will eventually over-flow. (According to Geo, anyway).

More water good for Lake Powell, maybe not so good for South Florida.

shepherd
02-13-2008, 12:13 PM
Don't worry. I hear they're planning to build a pipeline from the Great Lakes to the Southwest. :rolleyes:

stuartmcnair
02-13-2008, 12:20 PM
well I don't know about global warming...but I do know that SNOW IN TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA IS NOT RIGHT!

damn it's cold here...we were getting ready to bring the toys out of the warehouse until this

mrprostar
02-13-2008, 12:41 PM
I agree with Jim. The southwest is supposed to be suffering the most from drought, but look at snow fall this year. Lets wait and see what lake levels are at in June. Wolf Creek ski resort has over 400" of snow this year. Where does that end up? IN THE LAKES!

vegashomeexpert
02-13-2008, 12:46 PM
You guys wanna know what else fries me!?!?!?

This stuff! In the DESERT!!

Fountains
http://blog.busbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/02/bellagio_hotel_and_casino_las_vegas_nv.jpg

Golf Courses
31507

YADDA YADDA YADDA!
Seems like a little "native landscaping" in Vegas needs to take over and water usage would be down about 40%!!

Vegas has grow TREMENDOUSLY over the last 2 decades with homes. I am not saying that all of the southwestern states need to watch themselves, but vegas' "bigger is better" philosophy is just not cutting it!
Now, now. I may have taken this personal but as a city, even having grown in population by 30% since 2000, we are actually using less water. The golf courses are taking out sod by the acre as are individual homeowners. The water district will actually give residential and commercial users $2.00 / sf to remove grass. And, the only place that can legally have fountains are the casinos on the strip. All the other fountains in town (gas stations, shopping centers, business complexes etc) are sitting dry. We are making an effort, is SOCAL?

Sodar
02-13-2008, 12:53 PM
Now, now. I may have taken this personal but as a city, even having grown in population by 30% since 2000, we are actually using less water. The golf courses are taking out sod by the acre as are individual homeowners. The water district will actually give residential and commercial users $2.00 / sf to remove grass. And, the only place that can legally have fountains are the casinos on the strip. All the other fountains in town (gas stations, shopping centers, business complexes etc) are sitting dry. We are making an effort, is SOCAL?

I could not agree with you more! I think SoCal and all of the southwest needs to step up to the plate. I personally have been doing my best to help out, but unfortunately, until the local municipalities provide incentives, very few will hop on the band wagon.

There is really sooooo much that can be done to help the situation that it is not worth the time or the effort to list them! I sure hope that something is done, before the whole lower Colorado river is just a dry creek bed!

jimmer2880
02-13-2008, 01:23 PM
I agreed with the martini theory myself until I watched a National Geographic show(probably first mistake)about it the other day.

Its not that the ice in the martini melts that raises the level, its that more ice falls in or melts into it. A lot of the ice at the south pole for instance is not already in the ocean, it is sitting on top of Antartica. So if you have the ice bucket sitting next to your martini and plop some more cubes in or let it melt and pour it in, your glass will eventually over-flow. (According to Geo, anyway).

More water good for Lake Powell, maybe not so good for South Florida.

Guess I'd better start drinking then :D

It's a good thing the ice on the south pole is getting thicker :)

WakeSeeky
02-14-2008, 01:36 PM
Now, now. I may have taken this personal but as a city, even having grown in population by 30% since 2000, we are actually using less water. The golf courses are taking out sod by the acre as are individual homeowners. The water district will actually give residential and commercial users $2.00 / sf to remove grass. And, the only place that can legally have fountains are the casinos on the strip. All the other fountains in town (gas stations, shopping centers, business complexes etc) are sitting dry. We are making an effort, is SOCAL?

No kidding! We've had watering restrictions here for years now. Is So. Cal on water restrictions? I know Arizona isn't. The casino fountains use recirculated water, it's not like they're dumping "used" water into the street. The golf courses and casinos have torn out acres of high water use landscaping, and most new development is severely limited on how much grass can be put in. Yes, it's grown a lot here, but we've done remarkably well cutting back our water use. Little help downstream, guys?

Incidentally, snowpack upstream this year is something like 130% of average and the lake is up maybe 3 feet so far this winter. We need several more years of good snow, but personally I think I'll manage to hold off the panic for now.

Besides, somebody from So. Cal calling out Vegas on population growth?? Aren't you all living here now? :D

coz
02-14-2008, 01:54 PM
Incidentally, snowpack upstream this year is something like 130% of average and the lake is up maybe 3 feet so far this winter. We need several more years of good snow, but personally I think I'll manage to hold off the panic for now.

Besides, somebody from So. Cal calling out Vegas on population growth?? Aren't you all living here now? :D

Alot of us moved to AZ and yeah no restrictions here in AZ and I just heard that my local lakes are full including Roosevelt Lake which is at max capacity right now and feeds the 3 lakes below it. Also the thermometer is trying real hard to hit 80 now so were hitting the lakes.:D

TMCNo1
02-14-2008, 01:59 PM
Guess I'd better start drinking then :D

It's a good thing the ice on the south pole is getting thicker :)


It runs downhill! Pour water on a basketball and see where it goes, to the bottom and if it's cold enough it will freeze.
It's got to be true, I read it on the Internet!:rolleyes: :D

jimmer2880
02-14-2008, 02:19 PM
It runs downhill! Pour water on a basketball and see where it goes, to the bottom and if it's cold enough it will freeze.
It's got to be true, I read it on the Internet!:rolleyes: :D


:worthy:

I've always said that we on the TMC could solve all the worlds problem (as long as they don't take Google away from us :D )